A History of Foretelling

The future has a reputation. The good news is that it is one we can learn from; the bad news is that we rarely do. This is because a clear lesson in future history is that knowledge of the future is not practical. But that should not stop people from trying.

Take it The famous prophecy of Peter Turchin for 2020. In 2010 he conducted a series of historical studies, called cliodynamics, which led him to predict that the West would experience a political upheaval ten years later. Unfortunately, no one was able to act on the prophecy to prevent the collapse of US democracy. And, if he did, Turchin’s prediction would be turned into a failure. This situation is not confusing.

Rulers from Mesopotamia to Manhattan want to know the future in order to find the best, but again and again, they have failed to interpret it correctly, or they have failed to understand the political motives or speculative failures of those who express it. . Often, they have also chosen to ignore the future, forcing them to face unpleasant truths. Even 21st-century technological advances have failed to address these major issues — the result of computer programs, which are just as accurate as data entry.

There is a theory that the scientific method of foretelling the future will be accurate. But this belief causes more problems than it solves, not because it often ignores or excludes biodiversity. Despite the promises of accurate and intelligent technology, there is no reason to assume that the proliferation of AI in prediction makes prediction more effective than it has ever been in human history.

People have been around for a long time tried to find out more about the appearance of things to come. These endeavors, although of a similar nature, vary in time and place in several major ways, and the obvious way is the method — that is, Why prophecies were made and interpreted. From time immemorial, the main differences in practice have been between people who have the gift or ability to predict the future, and systems that provide rules for predicting the future. For example, the prophecies of the prophets, sorcerers, and prophets depended on the power of human beings to discover other ways of life and to receive divine inspiration. Divination techniques, such as astrology, divination, numerology, and Tarot, however, depend on the magician’s ability to bring to light a complex legal system (and sometimes higher mathematics), and their ability to interpret and apply it in practice. zinake. Interpreting a dream or a habit of necromancy can be between two things, depending on your innate ability, and perhaps the skill you have acquired. And there are many examples, past and present, that affect all aspects of the future. Any search on the internet for “dream interpretation” or “horoscope reading” will confuse millions.

In recent years, technology has embraced the latter approach, just as IT development (predicted, at least, by Moore’s law) has provided more powerful tools and more transparent systems. In the 1940s, MONIAC ​​analog computers used real tanks and black water pipes to depict the UK economy. By the 1970s, Club of Rome could turn to World3 computer simulations to demonstrate the movement of energy through human and natural systems through large groups such as industry, environmental degradation, and population growth. people. His report, Growth Limits, he became a great seller, though he was constantly criticized for his ideas at the core of the model and for the type of data he fed.

At the same time, instead of relying on technological advances, some fortune-tellers have turned to a more predictable future. For example, the choice of public opinion and confidentiality depends on the simplest thing, asking people what they want to do or what they think will happen. Then there is the need for a careful interpretation, either based on quantity (such as voter target votes) or on status (such as the DELPHI analysis of the Rand corporation). The latter method uses the wisdom of very special forces. Gathering a team of experts to discuss a given topic, thinking goes, it becomes more accurate than personal prediction.

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