Ndemanga za Mkonzi: Mu 2020, MIT Task Force idapanga zambiri lipoti pa Ntchito Yamtsogolo. Kuyambira pamenepo, mliri wapadziko lonse lapansi wakhudza kwambiri ntchito ndi mabizinesi, zomwe zikupereka chilimbikitso Ntchito Yamtsogolo, ndi olemba omwewo. Bukuli, lomwe gawo lotsatirali lasinthidwa, lisindikizidwa ndi MIT Press pa Januware 25, 2022.
Zaka khumi zapitazo, mafoni amphamvu anali akadali achilendo, magalimoto osayendetsa sankawoneka m’misewu ya anthu, ndipo makompyuta sankamvetsera zokambirana kapena kuyankha mafunso. Kuthekera kwa maloboti kugwira ntchito kumawoneka kutali, kupatula mzere umodzi kapena ziwiri. Koma pamene luso lotulukira la robotics ndi luntha lochita kupanga lidayamba kujambula mitu yankhani ndi malingaliro odziwika, ofufuza ndi olemba ndemanga adayamba kuchenjeza kuti ntchito zomwe nthawi zambiri zimaganiziridwa kuti sizingagwire ntchito zokha – zomwe zimafunikira ukatswiri, kuweruza, kupangira zinthu, komanso luso lakale – posachedwapa zitha kukwaniritsidwa bwino. pa makina. Nzika za m’maiko otukuka kwambiri zinazindikira, ndipo zinachita mantha kwambiri.
Kafukufuku wathu sanatsimikizire masomphenya a dystopian a maloboti omwe amachotsa ogwira ntchito m’mafakitole kapena AI yopereka ukatswiri waumunthu komanso kuweruza mopambanitsa. Koma zidavumbulutsa china chake chowopsa: mkati mwaukadaulo womwe umapereka zokolola zambiri komanso chuma chomwe chimabweretsa ntchito zambiri (mpaka vuto la covid-19), tidapeza msika wantchito momwe zipatso zake zimagawidwa mosiyanasiyana, zokhotakhota kwambiri. pamwamba, kuti antchito ambiri alawako kagawo kakang’ono ka zokolola zambiri.
Kwa ogwira ntchito ambiri aku US, njira yakukula kwa zokolola idasiyana ndi kukula kwa malipiro zaka makumi anayi zapitazo. Kuthetsa banja kumeneku kunali ndi zotsatirapo zoipa pazachuma ndi chikhalidwe cha anthu: ntchito zolipidwa zochepa, zopanda chitetezo zomwe anthu omwe sanaphunzire ku koleji; chiwerengero chochepa cha kutenga nawo mbali pa ntchito; kufooka kokwera mmwamba kudutsa mibadwo; ndi kusiyana pakati pa mafuko m’mapindu ndi ntchito zomwe sizinasinthe kwenikweni m’zaka makumi ambiri. Ngakhale kuti matekinoloje atsopano athandizira kuti pakhale zotsatira zosauka izi, zotsatirazi sizinali zotsatira zosapeŵeka za kusintha kwaumisiri, kapena kudalirana kwa mayiko, kapena mphamvu za msika. Zovuta zofananira zochokera ku digito ndi kudalirana kwa mayiko zinakhudzanso mayiko olemera kwambiri, komabe misika yawo yantchito idayenda bwino.
Tikudziwa kuti mbiri yakale ndi zachuma siziwonetsa kusamvana kwenikweni pakati pa kusintha kwaukadaulo, ntchito zonse, komanso kukwera kwamapindu. Kulumikizana kosunthika kwa ma automation a ntchito, ukadaulo, ndi kupanga ntchito kwatsopano, ngakhale kumakhala kosokoneza nthawi zonse, ndiye chitsime chachikulu chakukula kwa zokolola. Kupanga kwatsopano kumawongolera kuchuluka, mtundu, ndi ntchito zosiyanasiyana zomwe wogwira ntchito angathe kuchita munthawi yake. Kuchulukirachulukira kumeneku, kumapangitsanso kuti anthu azikhala ndi moyo wabwino komanso kuti zochita za anthu ziziyenda bwino.
Zatsopano zikalephera kubweretsa mwayi, komabe, zimayambitsa mantha am’tsogolo: kukayikira kuti kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo, ngakhale kupangitsa dziko kukhala lolemera, kuwopseza moyo wambiri. Mantha ameneŵa amabweretsa mtengo waukulu: magaŵano andale ndi madera, kusakhulupirira mabungwe, ndi kusakhulupirira zatsopano zokha. Mu ndale zaku US, kusiyana komwe kukukulirakulira pakati pa omwe ali ndi “omwe ali nawo” ndi “omwe alibe” kwachititsa kuti mkangano wapadziko lonse ukhale wokulirapo pa momwe anthu akuyenera kuchita ndi zosowa za omwe ali pansi pazachuma.
Vuto lalikulu lomwe likubwera – inde, ntchito yamtsogolo – ndikupititsa patsogolo mwayi wamisika yantchito kuti ukwaniritse, kukwaniritsa, ndikusintha luso laukadaulo. Izi zidzafuna kupanga zatsopano m’mabungwe athu amsika wogwira ntchito posintha malamulo, mfundo, miyambo, mabungwe, ndi mabizinesi omwe amakhazikitsa “malamulo amasewera.”
Zokhudza msika wantchito zamaukadaulo monga AI ndi ma robotiki zikutenga zaka kuti zichitike. Koma tilibe nthawi yoti tiziwakonzekera. Ngati matekinolojewa agwiritsidwa ntchito m’mabungwe ogwirira ntchito masiku ano, omwe adapangidwira zaka zana zapitazi, tidzawona zotsatira zofanana ndi zomwe zawonetsedwa m’zaka zaposachedwa: kutsika kwa malipiro ndi phindu, komanso msika wogwira ntchito womwe ukukulirakulira.
Kupanga tsogolo la ntchito yomwe imabweretsa phindu la makina opanga makina omwe akupita patsogolo mwachangu komanso makompyuta amphamvu kwambiri kungapereke mwayi komanso chitetezo chachuma kwa ogwira ntchito. Kuti tichite izi, tiyenera kulimbikitsa zatsopano zamabungwe zomwe zimagwirizana ndi kusintha kwaukadaulo.
Vuto lalikulu lomwe likubwera – inde, ntchito yamtsogolo – ndikupititsa patsogolo mwayi wamisika yantchito kuti ukwaniritse, kukwaniritsa, ndikusintha luso laukadaulo.
Kale kwambiri mliriwu usanachitike, kafukufuku wathu pazantchito zamtsogolo adawonetsa kuchuluka kwa anthu mdziko lathu omwe akulephera kuchita bwino pamsika wantchito womwe umatulutsa ntchito zambiri koma chitetezo chochepa pazachuma. Zotsatira za mliriwu zapangitsa kuti ziwonekere momveka bwino komanso momveka bwino pagulu: ngakhale kuti anthu ambiri omwe amalandila malipiro ochepa amakhala “ofunikira,” adapirira ntchito yowopsa kwambiri pamaso pa Covid-19, popeza ntchito zawo zambiri sizingathe. zichitike patali.
Ena amaneneratu kuti maloboti posachedwapa atenga maudindowa, ngakhale ochepa omwe ali ndi masiku ano. Ena amawona gawo lofunikira la kusinthika kwaumunthu, popeza ndi anthu, osati makina, kusinthasintha komwe kwatilola kukonzanso ntchito pa ntchentche panthawi ya mliri. Enanso amawona covid-19 ngati chochitika chodzikakamiza – mphamvu yothandiza yomwe ingakoke matekinoloje kuchokera mtsogolo mpaka pano pomwe tikuphunzira kugwiritsa ntchito makina pantchito zomwe anthu sangathe kuchita mosatekeseka. Komabe zikuyenda bwino, zotsatira za covid-19 paukadaulo ndi ntchito zitha kupitilira mliriwu, kuyambitsa zosintha zomwe zingawoneke mosiyana ndi zomwe aliyense amalingalira mu 2018.
Asitikali ena asokonezanso masomphenya amtsogolo a 2018, kuphatikiza kusweka pakati pa mayiko awiri akuluakulu azachuma padziko lonse lapansi komanso chipwirikiti chandale komanso chipwirikiti chazachuma chomwe chidafika pachiwopsezo chankhanza ku US Capitol pambuyo pa chisankho cha 2020 cha Purezidenti Joe. Biden. Zovutazi zikukonzanso mgwirizano, kusweka ndikukonzanso ubale wamabizinesi apadziko lonse lapansi, ndikuyambitsa njira zatsopano zankhondo zapaintaneti, kuphatikiza kufalitsa nkhani zabodza, ukazitape wamafakitale, komanso kusokoneza pamagetsi pazantchito zofunika kwambiri. US ndi China zinali ndi mikangano m’mbuyomu, koma palibe ngati kupasuka komwe kukuchitika. Zomwe zidayamba ngati nkhondo yamalonda zasintha kukhala nkhondo yaukadaulo. Boma lonse la China lothana ndi zolinga zazikulu zamafakitale ndi zaukadaulo zimabweretsa zovuta kumayiko akumayiko akumadzulo, zomwe nthawi zambiri zimatenga njira zochepetsera anthu, nthawi zambiri motsogozedwa ndi bizinesi. Zidziwikebe ngati cholinga cha dziko la China pa ulamuliro wotsogozedwa ndi boma wa kusonkhanitsa deta kumabweretsa kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo kuposa kupanga zida zamphamvu zowunikira ndikuwongolera kuchuluka kwa anthu ake.
Mkangano ndi China ukukulirakulira pazachuma ndikuwopseza kulepheretsa zatsopano, zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira kuchokera kumayiko padziko lonse lapansi pomwe ofufuza amagwirizana kudutsa malire ndi nthawi. Kodi tingatsimikize bwanji kuti kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo, nthawi iliyonse ikabwera, kumabweretsa chitukuko chomwe chimagawidwa mofala? Kodi US ndi antchito ake angapitilize bwanji kutsogolera pakupanga ndi kupanga matekinoloje ndikupeza phindu?
Palibe umboni wotsimikizirika wa mbiri yakale kapena wamakono wosonyeza kuti kupita patsogolo kwaumisiri kumatifikitsa ku tsogolo lopanda ntchito. M’malo mwake, tikuyembekeza kuti m’zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi, mayiko otukuka adzakhala ndi mwayi wochuluka wa ntchito kuposa ogwira ntchito, ndikuti robotics ndi automation zitenga mbali yofunika kwambiri kutseka mipatayi.
Kupita patsogolo kochititsa chidwi pamakompyuta ndi kulumikizana, ma robotiki ndi AI, akukonzanso mafakitale osiyanasiyana monga inshuwaransi, malonda, chisamaliro chaumoyo, kupanga, zonyamula katundu, ndi mayendedwe. Koma timawona kuchedwa kwanthawi yayitali, nthawi zambiri pazaka makumi ambiri, kuyambira pakubadwa kwazinthu mpaka kutsatsa kwake, kutengera njira zamabizinesi, kutengera anthu ambiri, komanso kukhudzidwa kwa ogwira ntchito. Maloboti amakono amakampani akhala akuchedwa kusamukira kumakampani ang’onoang’ono ndi apakatikati, mwachitsanzo, ndipo magalimoto odziyimira pawokha sanatumizidwebe pamlingo waukulu. Zowonadi, zotsatira zazambiri zamsika zamatekinoloje atsopano zomwe tidapeza zidachitika chifukwa chochepa kwambiri ndi ma robotics ndi AI kusiyana ndi kufalikira kwaukadaulo wazaka makumi angapo (ngakhale wotukuka kwambiri) monga intaneti, mafoni am’manja ndi mtambo, ndi mafoni.
Kusintha kwaukadaulo kwakanthawi kuno kumapereka mwayi wopanga mfundo, kukulitsa luso, ndikulimbikitsa mabizinesi kuti akonze njira yosinthira ku phindu lalikulu kwambiri lazachuma komanso zachuma.
Nchiyani chomwe chidzafunikire kukonzanso ndi kukonzanso mabungwe ndi ndondomeko za US kuti apange chitukuko chogawana chomwe chingatheke ngati tili okonzeka kusintha zofunikira?
Timayamba ndi kuyang’ana momwe ogwira ntchito amaphunzitsidwa kuti apite patsogolo pachuma chomwe chikusintha mofulumira. Kuthandiza ogwira ntchito kuti apitirizebe kukhala opindulitsa pantchito yomwe ikusintha mosalekeza kumafuna kuwapatsa mphamvu kuti aphunzire maluso atsopano pamikhalidwe yonse ya moyo wawo—m’sukulu za pulaimale ndi sekondale, m’mapologalamu a ntchito zamanja ndi za m’koleji, ndi m’mapologalamu opitirizabe ophunzitsa anthu achikulire. Dongosolo lapadera la US lophunzitsira antchito lili ndi zofooka, koma lilinso ndi zabwino zake. Mwachitsanzo, imapereka malo ambiri olowera kwa ogwira ntchito omwe angafune kukonzanso njira zawo zantchito kapena kufuna kupeza ntchito yatsopano atachotsedwa ntchito. Tikutsutsa kuti dziko la US liyenera kuyika ndalama m’mabungwe omwe alipo kale a maphunziro ndi maphunziro ndikupanga njira zatsopano zophunzitsira kuti chitukuko cha luso chopitilira chifikire, chochita chidwi, komanso chotsika mtengo.
Koma ngakhale ogwira ntchito ophunzitsidwa bwino komanso olimbikitsidwa amafunikira ndipo amayenera kukhala otetezeka. Kukwera kwa zokolola za anthu ogwira ntchito sikunasinthe kukhala kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa ndalama zomwe amapeza chifukwa mabungwe ndi ndondomeko za msika wa ntchito zawonongeka.
Mayiko a anzawo ochokera ku Sweden kupita ku Germany kupita ku Canada akumana ndi zovuta zachuma, zaukadaulo, komanso zapadziko lonse lapansi ngati US, ndipo asangalala ndi kukula kwachuma kofanana, koma apereka zotsatira zabwino kwa ogwira ntchito awo. Zomwe zimasiyanitsa dziko la US ndi kusintha kwa mabungwe ndi zisankho zomwe sizinachitike, ndipo nthawi zina zidakulitsa zotsatira za zovuta izi pamsika wantchito.
US yalola njira zachikhalidwe kuti mawu a ogwira ntchito asokonezeke popanda kulimbikitsa mabungwe atsopano kapena kulimbikitsa omwe alipo. Zalola kuti malipiro ochepera a feduro abwerere kufupi ndi zosafunikira, kutsitsa pansi pamsika wantchito kwa ogwira ntchito omwe amalipidwa pang’ono. Lavomereza kukulitsa malonda aulere motsogozedwa ndi mfundo ndi mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene, Mexico ndi China makamaka, zomwe zakweza ndalama zonse zadziko, komabe zalephera kuthana ndi kutayika kwa ntchito komanso kukonzanso zosowa za ogwira ntchito omwe adasamutsidwa ndi ndondomekozi. .
Palibe umboni wosonyeza kuti njira iyi yolandirira kukula ndikunyalanyaza zovuta za ogwira ntchito zapamwamba zalipira US. Utsogoleri wa US pakukula ndi zatsopano ndi wanthawi yayitali-dziko lidatsogolera dziko lonse m’zaka za zana la 20, makamaka zaka makumi angapo nkhondo yachiwiri yapadziko lonse itangotha pamene zovuta zamsika zantchito zomwe zalembedwa pano ndi zaposachedwa. Zolephera izi sizimatengera luso lazopangapanga kapena zimapanga ndalama zolipiridwa kuti mupeze phindu lina lazachuma lomwe amabweretsa. Tikhoza kuchita bwino.
Kuzindikira kufunikira kwa ntchito zabwino pazaumoyo wa anthu komanso kufunikira kwazinthu zatsopano pakupanga ntchito zabwino kumatipangitsa kufunsa momwe tingagwiritsire ntchito ndalama mwanzeru kuti tithandizire kupanga ntchito, kukula mwachangu, ndikukumana ndi zovuta zomwe zikukwera.
Kuyika ndalama muzatsopano kumakulitsa kukula kwachuma, chomwe ndi chofunikira kwambiri kuti tithane ndi zovuta zobwera chifukwa chachuma chapadziko lonse lapansi chodziwika ndi mpikisano wowopsa waukadaulo. M’maphunziro athu onse, tapeza matekinoloje omwe anali zotsatira zachindunji za ndalama za federal ku US pakufufuza ndi chitukuko zaka zana zapitazi komanso nthawi yayitali: intaneti, ma semiconductors apamwamba, AI, robotics, ndi magalimoto odziyimira pawokha, kungotchulapo ochepa chabe. Katundu ndi ntchito zatsopanozi zimapanga mafakitale ndi ntchito zatsopano zomwe zimafuna maluso atsopano ndikupereka mwayi watsopano wopeza. US ili ndi mbiri yabwino yochirikiza zatsopano zomwe opanga, amalonda, ndi ndalama zopangira zimagwiritsa ntchito kuthandizira ndikupanga mabizinesi atsopano.
Kutenga ukadaulo watsopano kumapanga opambana ndi olephera ndipo apitiliza kutero. Kufunafuna thandizo kuchokera kwa onse okhudzidwa – kuphatikiza ogwira ntchito, mabizinesi, osunga ndalama, mabungwe ophunzitsa ndi osapindula, ndi boma – kutha kuchepetsa zovulaza ndikuwonjezera phindu kwa anthu ndi madera ndikuthandizira kuwonetsetsa kuti msika wantchito wamtsogolo umapereka zabwino, mwayi, ndi mulingo wachitetezo chachuma kwa onse.