Strengthening the rivalry between the US and China is forcing South Korea, a key American ally who has been seeking a long-term partnership with Beijing, to meet a difficult decision.
The program of Aukus The security agreement between the US, the UK and Australia, as well as last month’s Quad summit in the United States, Australia, India and Japan, reflects Joe Biden’s management’s determination to bring Washington’s allies to Asia.
But Seoul tried to do so out of fear of offending China, South Korea’s most important economic partner and security partner on the Korean island.
“The world’s largest free democracies are coming together, but South Korea is like a shy girl at a prom,” said Victor Cha, Chairman of Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Study in Washington.
“Australians are at the dance floor; The Korean people are sitting next to the plate. ”
Based on the US defense, South Korea has more than 26,400 U.S. troops, the largest exporter to Asia after Japan and the third in the world.
Its power generation and capabilities in sectors such as semiconductors, electric batteries and artificial intelligence make it essential for Western policymakers to secure future technologies and global chains.
But South Korea’s proximity to China, as well as Beijing’s history in North Korea, has left Seoul for a long time to avoid attracting the wrath of its neighbors.
This retention was exacerbated by injuries to China’s unrestricted economic bloc South Korea agreed in 2016 to launch US weapons, as well as at one time US President Donald Trump threatened to withdraw American troops from the island in cash.
Van Jackson, a former Pentagon staffer and now a student at Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, said: “Historically, Seoul does not want to offend the Chinese people with legitimate concerns.”
“The biggest change is Biden,” said Kim Hyun Wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, a research organization affiliated with South Korea’s foreign ministry.
A meeting between President Moon Jae-in and Joe Biden at the White House in May said South Korea was keen to do the same with Quad © Anna Moneymaker / Getty
“Barack Obama did not want to fight China. Donald Trump wants to meet China, but he does not care if American allies intervened. Biden wants to meet China, but he also wants Americans to join them. This is forcing Seoul to choose.”
Controversy over South Korea’s $ 275bn flagship program shows serious uncertainty over his views.
Seoul’s size is huge The “blue water” vessels, coupled with a willingness to participate in US-led military operations and other Asian and European organizations, demonstrate a willingness to participate in regional security.
But defense analysts said the South Korean military was heavily manipulated and feared that the United States would be abandoned and suspicious of Japan’s interests for a time as a desire to join Washington in trying to fight the Chinese war.
“South Korea continues to revolve around how the dwindling American world must reap the benefits of its full integration,” said Euan Graham at the International Institute for Strategic Study in Singapore.
“There are disappointments in the US that South Korea is developing excellent technology and expertise, but it will not participate in any anti-China alliance – unless China holds back its hand.”
The same concerns have been expressed about South Korea’s disappearance from Quad.
But S Paul Choi, founder of the StratWays Group on political advice in Seoul, said South Korea’s preference for international talks should not be interpreted to be contrary to US goals.
A May meeting at the White House between Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, he said, highlighted Seoul’s willingness to pursue goals similar to Quad’s, even in its own way.
“You have a new discussion on the relationship between US-South Korea and Quad’s similarities in climate, health security, 5G and 6G technology, chain strength and much more,” Choi said.
“What would be the difference if South Korea enters Quad: a membership card?”
Since the Moon-Biden summit, several South Korean organizations have announced big American money in areas identified by Washington as a priority.
But June Park, an economist at Princeton University, doubted the investment was showing significant change.
“Not only do Korean law circulating between the US and China – Korean business leaders are also doing it.”
Cha, from the Center for Strategic and International Study, says Seoul’s next move depends on the 2022 elections.
“People [leftwing] The ruling party will not be a problem in China, does not have good relations with Japan and does not want to be part of the Quad or other allies, whereas [rightwing] Opponents want to stay in China and work with Quad, if they do not join Quad. The results will be significant in South Korea and the United States. ”
But Kim at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy said the idea was already made, describing the Moon-Biden conference as “a major paradigm shift”.
“Korea is choosing the United States, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about America’s potential for fraud. The idea is ‘Well, we’ll go with you.’ But behind our backs is the question: will you really be able to protect us when this happens? ”