Seasonal Promotions Reduce to a Season of 1.5 ° C

In war in the face of climate change, one figure appears above the rest: 1.5 degrees Celsius. It may be difficult to wrap your head around the tropical climate, but the difference between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius is significant. To give one example: At 1.5 degrees Celsius, we are talking about the loss of 70 percent of coral reefs; at 2 degrees Celsius, the corals will be gone. At 1.5 degrees Celsius, 1 in every 100 Arctic summers is free of ice; at 2 degrees Celsius and 1 in 10.

With the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow nearing completion, one big question to answer is whether it has maintained its target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said urged countries to “Stop all the suspensions in the next few days so that 1.5 can live.” And a words from the “consensus agreement” asking countries to make climate change promises in line with 1.5 degrees Celsius ahead of COP27 now has 41 member states, including the United States.

For countries like the Marshall Islands, which they face destruction from climate change if smoke is not controlled, the same idea of ​​not developing short-term promises is baseless. “We need to come back to make sure the nationally guaranteed donations are in line with 1.5 degrees,” said Tina Stege, a Marshall Islands delegation at COP26, on November 10. on the table until the targets were met. “

With all the mixed messages coming out of COP26, it can be difficult to know how close we are to achieving the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius. An analysis released last week and the International Energy Agency (IEA) states that climate promises made so far at COP26 could help reduce global warming by 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. But differently analysis From the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) it has been found that what is happening here is increasing the temperature by 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, and the facts and actions that are setting the world at 2.7 degrees Celsius, the UN chief. Antonio Guterres called it “disaster.” The actual difference between 1.8 degrees Celsius and 2.7 degrees Celsius can be huge.

So what’s going on? The problem is that all of this is complex simulations, who by nature are supposed to make some predictions about what will happen. The IEA review determined that all long-term promises of zero will be fulfilled and include high-level promises made last week, such as one 30 percent reduction in methane emissions by 2030.

But not all of these promises have been included in the UN short-term strategic commitments, known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

When the CAT decided the same as the IEA, it came back with the same numbers, says Niklas Höhne, a colleague at the NewClimate Institute and co-author of the CAT study. “We also hope to drop to 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, but we warn that this will not happen,” he said. “Countries do not have enough short-term policies to navigate their goals. Short-term problem. ”

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